The One Forecast Every Pet Retailer Should Read Before Reordering Senior Dog and Kitten SKUs

You stock what sells, and what sells follows the household. If fewer puppies walk through the door and more kittens do, the products that ride those life stages shift with them. The forecast that tells you which way that's moving just got an update, and the numbers held.

A forecast running through 2035

CATalyst Council released the second edition of its long-range U.S. veterinary visit forecast, "Puppocalypse, Kitten Craze, and the Expectations Reset," updating the original June report with a full fiscal year of clinical visit data through Q2 2026. The updated forecast, co-authored with Vetsource, Kynetec, and Dedekind Cut Labs, confirms the reset the first edition called: growth in combined U.S. clinical visits between negative 2% and zero through 2031, well below the 2% to 3% the industry had expected. Canine puppy clinical visits fell 10.5% year over year in Q2 2026, the fourth straight year of decline. Kitten visits rose 1.3%, matching the flat trend the original report identified. Combined clinical visits for fiscal 2026 came in at negative 1.50%, inside the band CATalyst published in June. The nine-year combined forecast now projects a negative 1.29% compound annual rate through fiscal 2035, with the steepest single-year drop (negative 2.2%) still ahead in fiscal 2027.

Vet visits predict what moves in specialty

Vet visits track the demographic mix of households walking into pet stores. When that mix shifts, fewer puppies, more kittens, an aging dog population, the categories that ride those visits shift with them.

The CATalyst forecast isn't a survey or a sentiment read. It's built on actual clinical visit data, and the second edition added a household survey covering more than 60,000 U.S. households, capturing 33,900 dogs and 26,606 cats. The survey identified a genuine, age-specific shortfall in young dogs entering U.S. households, providing independent confirmation of the puppy decline the visit data showed. A prior version of the model, constructed before fiscal 2026 data became available, had projected a negative 1.98% decline in combined clinical visits for the year; the final number arrived at negative 1.50%, and the canine puppy entry cohort estimate matched the actual figure within one hundredth of a percentage point. That's the kind of out-of-sample accuracy that makes a forecast worth planning around.

The report returns to two potential drivers of the puppy decline: veterinary service inflation, which the report notes has risen 58% cumulatively since January 2019 against 32% for all items, and a generational move away from single-family homes, the type of housing dogs require disproportionately. Neither is presented as a proven cause, but both frame the structural headwinds that make a return to 2% to 3% growth unlikely.

Floor plan and training move now, not in five years

For the store owner: If vet visits tilt toward cats and senior dogs through the next decade, your floor plan and staff training priorities need to move now, not in five years. The aging dog cohort, the smaller puppy groups from 2023 through 2026 now entering the age ranges with the highest visit frequency, is the demographic shift the forecast says is coming. If you're still allocating endcap and staff focus the way you did in 2022, you're leaving margin on the table.

For the buyer: This forecast tells you where to add SKUs and where to hold or shrink. The forecast confirms what some buyers already see: the growth pocket is in the households the vet visit data shows are expanding, cats and aging dogs. Assortment decisions you make this quarter should reflect the household mix you'll face in 2027, not the one you faced in 2023.

For the brand/DTC operator: If you're pitching a product that rides vet visits, a supplement, a calming chew, an Rx diet alternative, this report is your category sizing tool for the next decade. The forecast projects the steepest single-year decline still lies ahead in fiscal 2027. Lead with the demographic tailwind your product rides (senior dog, kitten medicalization gap) rather than the category growth rate the industry expected three years ago.

If this is the kind of operator-level read you want every week, subscribe to PetRetailNews.

Cats are the bright spot inside a declining total

The headline number, combined clinical visits down through 2035, sounds like bad news, but the category-level story is more useful. Cats remain a clear bright spot. CATalyst's Executive Director Gina Fortunato said closing the gap between the share of household cats that visit the veterinarian and the share that could is "the largest organic growth opportunity most practices have, regardless of what happens with puppy demographics." That medicalization gap is also the largest organic growth opportunity most independent pet retailers have.

The puppy decline is real, but it's not evenly distributed. The forecast projects the steepest single-year drop in fiscal 2027, when the smaller puppy groups from 2023 through 2026 enter the age ranges with the highest visit frequency. After that, the rate of decline begins to ease. If you're a store owner or buyer, that means the next 18 months are the moment to right-size your puppy assortment, not panic-cut it.

The forecast says the growth pocket is in the households the vet visit data shows are expanding: cats and aging dogs.

The aging dog cohort is the sleeper story. The smaller puppy groups from 2023 through 2026 are moving into the age bands where vet visits concentrate, and the forecast says that shift peaks in fiscal 2027. If you're a buyer planning your 2027 assortment today, the demographic math says you should be thinking about where those households shop and what they buy when they do.

Pull your sales mix by life stage

1. If you run a single-location store... pull your sales mix by life stage (puppy, adult, senior dog; kitten, adult cat) for the last 12 months. Compare it to the same period two years ago. If senior dog and kitten are growing as a share of your mix, your assortment should reflect that by Q4. Give your dog supplement endcap more space than it had last year.

2. If you're a category buyer... use the CATalyst forecast (available free on their website) as your anchor for the next planning cycle. The report includes scenario tables and methodology notes. Print the nine-year combined forecast chart and tape it to your desk. When a rep pitches you a puppy SKU, ask them how it performs with the aging dog cohort. If they don't have an answer, that's a signal.

3. If you're a brand or DTC operator pitching independents... lead your deck with the demographic tailwind your product rides. If you sell a senior dog supplement, the CATalyst forecast says the aging cohort is moving into heavier-visit age bands. If you sell a kitten socialization aid, the forecast says kitten visits are plateauing but the medicalization gap is still wide. Frame your pitch around the household shift the retailer is already seeing, not the category growth rate the industry expected in 2022.

4. If you manage a team of buyers across multiple locations... task each buyer with a 90-day shelf audit: which SKUs in the puppy and senior dog sections turned in the last 60 days, and which sat. The forecast projects fiscal 2027 as the steepest single-year decline; if a puppy SKU isn't moving now, it won't move better next year. Cut it and reallocate the footage.

5. If you're planning staff training for Q3... add a module on cat owners. The kitten visit plateau the forecast identifies means the households walking in with cats are the growth pocket. Train your floor staff to ask: "Have you scheduled a vet visit yet?" The household that hasn't is the household where you can drive both the vet visit and the product sale.

Cats and aging dogs own the next five years

The vet visit forecast through 2035 just told you where the next five years of growth live: cats and aging dogs. If your assortment still looks like 2022, you're stocking for a household mix that's already gone.

← Back to the Newsdesk