You stock what sells, and what sells follows the household. If fewer puppies walk through the door and more kittens do, the products that ride those life stages shift with them. The forecast that tells you which way that's moving just got an update, and the numbers held.
Here's what just happened
CATalyst Council released the second edition of its long-range U.S. veterinary visit forecast, "Puppocalypse, Kitten Craze, and the Expectations Reset," updating the original June report with a full fiscal year of clinical visit data through Q2 2026. The updated forecast, co-authored with Vetsource, Kynetec, and Dedekind Cut Labs, confirms the reset the first edition called: combined U.S. clinical visit growth of −2% to 0% through 2031, well below the 2% to 3% the industry had expected. Canine puppy clinical visits fell 10.5% year-over-year in Q2 2026, the fourth straight year of decline. Kitten visits rose 1.3%, consistent with the plateau the original report identified. Combined clinical visits for fiscal 2026 came in at −1.50%, inside the band CATalyst published in June. The nine-year combined forecast now stands at a −1.29% compound annual decline through fiscal 2035, with the deepest single-year drop (−2.2%) still ahead in fiscal 2027.
Why this is actually a big deal
Vet visits are the single strongest predictor of what moves in specialty pet retail. When the demographic mix of vet visits shifts, fewer puppies, more kittens, an aging dog population, the categories that ride those visits shift with them.
The CATalyst forecast isn't a survey or a sentiment read. It's built on actual clinical visit data, and the second edition added a household survey that screened more than 60,000 U.S. households, representing 33,900 dogs and 26,606 cats. The survey found a real, age-concentrated deficit in young dogs entering U.S. households, independently corroborating the puppy decline the visit data showed. An earlier version of the model, built without fiscal 2026 data, projected a −1.98% decline in combined clinical visits for the year; the actual number came in at −1.50%, and the canine puppy entry cohort assumption landed within a hundredth of a point of the actual reading. That's the kind of out-of-sample accuracy that makes a forecast worth planning around.
The report also revisits two candidate explanations for the puppy decline: veterinary service inflation, up 58% cumulatively since January 2019 against 32% for all items, and a generational shift away from single-family housing, the living arrangement dogs disproportionately require. Neither is claimed as an established cause, but both frame the structural headwinds that make a return to 2% to 3% growth unlikely.
What this means for the shelf
For the store owner: If vet visits tilt toward cats and senior dogs through the next decade, your floor plan and staff training priorities need to move now, not in five years. The aging dog cohort, the below-baseline puppy cohorts of 2023 through 2026 moving into heavier-visit age bands, is the demographic shift the forecast says is coming. If you're still allocating endcap and staff focus the way you did in 2022, you're leaving margin on the table.
For the buyer: This forecast tells you where to add SKUs and where to hold or shrink. The forecast confirms what some buyers already see: the growth pocket is in the households the vet visit data shows are expanding, cats and aging dogs. Assortment decisions you make this quarter should reflect the household mix you'll face in 2027, not the one you faced in 2023.
For the brand/DTC operator: If you're pitching a product that rides vet visits, a supplement, a calming chew, an Rx diet alternative, this report is your category sizing tool for the next decade. The forecast says the deepest single-year decline is still ahead in fiscal 2027. Lead with the demographic tailwind your product rides (senior dog, kitten medicalization gap) rather than the category growth rate the industry expected three years ago.
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How we're thinking about it
The headline number, combined clinical visits down through 2035, sounds like bad news, but the category-level story is more useful. Cats remain a clear bright spot. CATalyst's Executive Director Gina Fortunato said it plainly: "About a third of household cats visit the veterinarian each year and closing that medicalization gap is the largest organic growth opportunity most practices have, regardless of what happens with puppy demographics." That medicalization gap is also the largest organic growth opportunity most independent pet retailers have.
The puppy decline is real, but it's not evenly distributed. The forecast says the deepest single-year drop is fiscal 2027, as the below-baseline puppy cohorts of 2023 through 2026 reach the heaviest-visit young-adult age bands. After that, the rate of decline begins to ease. If you're a store owner or buyer, that means the next 18 months are the moment to right-size your puppy assortment, not panic-cut it.
The forecast says the growth pocket is in the households the vet visit data shows are expanding: cats and aging dogs.
The aging dog cohort is the sleeper story. The below-baseline puppy cohorts of 2023 through 2026 are moving into the age bands where vet visits concentrate, and the forecast says that shift is the deepest in fiscal 2027. If you're a buyer planning your 2027 assortment today, the demographic math says you should be thinking about where those households shop and what they buy when they do.
What to do about it
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If you run a single-location store... pull your sales mix by life stage (puppy, adult, senior dog; kitten, adult cat) for the last 12 months. Compare it to the same period two years ago. If senior dog and kitten are growing as a share of your mix, your assortment should reflect that by Q4. Give your dog supplement endcap more space than it had last year.
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If you're a category buyer... use the CATalyst forecast (available free on their website) as your anchor for the next planning cycle. The report includes scenario tables and methodology notes. Print the nine-year combined forecast chart and tape it to your desk. When a rep pitches you a puppy SKU, ask them how it performs with the aging dog cohort. If they don't have an answer, that's a signal.
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If you're a brand or DTC operator pitching independents... lead your deck with the demographic tailwind your product rides. If you sell a senior dog supplement, the CATalyst forecast says the aging cohort is moving into heavier-visit age bands. If you sell a kitten socialization aid, the forecast says kitten visits are plateauing but the medicalization gap is still wide. Frame your pitch around the household shift the retailer is already seeing, not the category growth rate the industry expected in 2022.
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If you manage a team of buyers across multiple locations... task each buyer with a 90-day shelf audit: which SKUs in the puppy and senior dog sections turned in the last 60 days, and which sat. The forecast says fiscal 2027 is the deepest single-year decline; if a puppy SKU isn't moving now, it won't move better next year. Cut it and reallocate the footage.
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If you're planning staff training for Q3... add a module on cat owners. The kitten visit plateau the forecast identifies means the households walking in with cats are the growth pocket. Train your floor staff to ask: "Have you scheduled a vet visit yet?" The household that hasn't is the household where you can drive both the vet visit and the product sale.
The Bottom Line
The vet visit forecast through 2035 just told you where the next five years of growth live: cats and aging dogs. If your assortment still looks like 2022, you're stocking for a household mix that's already gone.